Climate shocks, coping strategies, and household resilience: Evidence from a three-wave panel in Malawi

Abstract

Climate shocks threaten rural livelihoods in Malawi, yet households adopt diverse coping strategies to mitigate welfare losses. Using three-wave Living Standards Measurement Study–Integrated Surveys on Agriculture panel data (2013–2019) and household fixed-effects models, this study examines how climate shocks affect food security and expenditure-based resilience and evaluates the moderating roles of coping strategies. Climate shocks significantly increase distress coping and reduce household consumption by approximately 4%–13% of mean annual expenditure. Savings and Social Safety Nets buffer these effects by stabilizing consumption, while credit provides only limited protection. These findings underscore the importance of integrating financial inclusion and social protection to strengthen resilience to climate risks.