Court Decisions and Air Pollution: Evidence from Ten Million Penal Cases in India

Abstract

This study explores the relationship between air pollution and judicial rulings. Although environmental factors should not affect judicial decisions, realists contend that there is substantial room for external factors to transpire into sentencing and sway human reasoning. We hypothesize that air pollution is one of these factors. Using Poisson panel models and instrumental variable techniques, we show that exposure leads to more convictions. We posit that this effect occurs because the impact of exposure on the central nervous system changes the cognitive performance and empathy of judges. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that decreasing average air pollution in India by one standard deviation would lead to up to 145,000 fewer convictions regarding currently active cases.