A secularly varying hemispheric climate-signal propagation previously detected in instrumental and proxy data not detected in CMIP3 data base

Abstract

Results of previous studies support the existence of a spatially coherent, secularly varying climate signal, propagating through a network of synchronized climate indices across the Northern Hemisphere during the 20th century. The signal was identified in both instrumental and proxy data sets. In this present study, we seek to detect this same low-frequency signal propagating hemispherically through networks of model-simulated climate indices. These simulated climate indices were reconstructed from a data set generated by models of the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Methods used in the earlier studies on climate-signal propagation guide the strategy for this companion study, for which 60 network analyses were performed. Most analyses focused on 20thcentury behavior, several on pre-industrial conditions. None succeeded in reproducing a hemispherically propagating signal. In light of previous results, we offer possible reasons for this finding. Among them is speculation on whether mechanisms relevant to signal propagation might be missing from this suite of general circulation models. © 2012 Wyatt and Peters.