Expert-statistical approach to the analysis of geotechnical risks in the construction of metro facilities

Abstract

Risk issues in metro construction should be discussed at the planning and design stages, along with issues of safety, efficiency of technological solutions and reliability. Problems that arise during the construction of an underground facility lead to an increase in time and cost. In the worst case - to the development of various scenarios of emergency situations. These problems are caused mainly by insufficient attention to geotechnical risk management. The effectiveness of this process is related to the quality of risk identification, understanding of the mechanism for developing a risk situation, and the degree of reliability of the risk assessment results. The article presents the results of identification of some geotechnical risks in metro projects in conjunction with risk-forming factors and consequences of their occurrence. A methodic for geotechnical risks assessing, based on an expert-statistical approach is presented, and theoretical generalization is given for individual components of the methodic. The form of information-analytical archive of risks is given. A veracity criteria for the risk assessment is presented. Further development of the approach will allow more reasonable geotechnical risks assessment for decision-making and selecting a program of measures to exclude and minimize the occurrence of risk situations.