The use of multivariate cross prediction methods in the breeding of a clonally reproduced crop (Solanum tuberosum)

Abstract

Three methods of cross prediction were examined namely multivariate probabilities, the sum of ranks and the frequency of genotypes in a sample that transgress set target values. The characters tuber weight, mean tuber weight, number of tubers and regularity of tuber shape were examined. It was found that a sample as small as 25 clones provided good predictions (as judged by the observed frequencies in larger progeny samples examined in various environments). The best estimates were obtained using multivariate probabilities based on the means, within progeny variances and the phenotypic correlation between variates. The rankings of the crosses according to these multivariate probabilities provided good indications of the number of clones which survived selection in an actual breeding scheme. Thus it is suggested that an empirical examination of a sub-sample of the progeny from a cross could be used to determine the crosses which would have the highest probability of producing new commercial potato cultivars with improved characteristics. © The Genetical Society of Great Britain.