Multivariate groundwater drought analysis using copulas

Abstract

Drought characteristics are among major inputs in the planning and management of water resources. Although numerous studies on probabilistic aspects of meteorological drought characteristics and their joint distribution functions have been reported, multivariate analysis of groundwater (GW) drought is rarely available. In this paper, while proposing a framework for statistical analysis of disturbed hydrological systems, copula-based multivariate GW drought analysis was performed in an over-drafted aquifer. For this purpose, a 1,000-year synthetic time series of naturalized GW level was produced. GW drought was monitored via the Standardized GW Index (SGI) index while the multivariate GW drought probability and return period were determined via copulas. Comparison between the copula and empirical GW drought probabilities using statistical goodness-of-fit tests proved sufficient accuracy of copula models in multivariate drought analysis. The results showed strong dependence among GW drought characteristics. Generally speaking, multivariate GW drought analysis incorporates major drought characteristics and provides concrete scientific basis for planning drought management strategies.