Pathways of Decline: Long-Term Population Change in Rural Podlasie, Poland

Abstract

This study examines how combinations of local demographic, economic, infrastructural, and spatial conditions have shaped long-term population trajectories in rural settlements in Podlasie, a peripheral region of north-eastern Poland, between 1950 and 2021. Drawing on an adapted Chi–Ventura framework, Classification and Regression Trees (C&RT) were applied to detect patterns indicative of diverging long-term demographic trajectories. The analysis identifies configurations of conditions associated with population decline, stability, and growth. Population decline was the overwhelmingly dominant trajectory across the study period. Agricultural dependence in 1950 emerged as the decisive determinant: villages where the majority of residents relied on farming were highly likely to depopulate, an effect reinforced by population ageing, poor housing infrastructure, and limited accessibility to large urban centres. Growth occurred only in settlements where a more diversified economic base, younger age profiles, better housing, and stronger urban connectivity were jointly present. The study concludes that long-term population decline in peripheral rural areas is strongly path-dependent and rooted in historically inherited economic and demographic structures. Infrastructure improvements may mitigate the decline but are often insufficient on their own to reverse it, highlighting the need for territorially sensitive policies that account for local demographic, economic, and spatial conditions.