A comparison of Logistic and Harvey models for electricity consumption in New Zealand

Abstract

There have been a number of forecasting models based on various forms of the logistic growth curve. This paper investigates the effectiveness of two forms of Harvey models and a Logistic model for forecasting electricity consumption in New Zealand. The three growth curve models are applied to the Domestic and Non-Domestic sectors and Total electricity consumption in New Zealand. The developed models are compared using their goodness of fit to historical data and forecasting accuracy over a period of 19 years. The comparison revealed that the Harvey model is a very appropriate candidate for forecasting electricity consumption in New Zealand. The developed models are also compared with some available national forecasts. © 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.