Coronavirus Disease 2019: COSeSco – A Risk Assessment Score to Predict the Risk of Pulmonary Sequelae in COVID-19 Patients

Abstract

Background: The presence of interstitial pneumonia in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients, as diagnosed through laboratory, functional, and radiological data, provides potential predicting factors of pulmonary sequelae. Objectives: The objectives were the creation of a risk assessment score for pulmonary sequelae at high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) through the assessment of laboratory data, lung function, and radiological changes in patients after the onset of COVID-19 interstitial pneumonia and the identification of predictive factors. Methods: We enrolled 121 subjects hospitalized due to COVID-19 pneumonia in our study. Clinical features, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score, HRCT score, and blood chemistry data at hospital admission, as well as HRCT score, pulmonary function testing values, exercise capacity by means of a 6-Minute Walk Test (6MWT), and dyspnea perception by the modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) at 4-month follow-up, were all recorded. The variables were elaborated in order to create a predictive model to identify patients at high risk of pulmonary sequelae at HRCT. Results: At the time of followup visit, 63% of patients had functional abnormality (diffusion lung capacity and/or total lung capacity <80% of predicted). Age, BMI, CCI, D-dimer, 6MWT, and mMRC were included in the COVID-19 Sequelae Score (COSeSco, ranging 0–15), which was able to individuate COVID-19 patients with radiologic sequelae (HRCT score >10%) at follow-up. The most revelatory COSeSco value that was found to intercept the highest sensitivity (100%) and specificity (77%) was 2. Conclusion: The COSeSco – comprising age, BMI, comorbidities, D-dimer, walking distance, and dyspnea perception – makes it possible to identify particularly at-risk COVID-19 patients who are likely to develop pulmonary sequelae assessed by HRCT.