Analysis of the effects of climatic factors on flood peak formation

Abstract

Spring flooding is an annual significant overflow of water in the central Russia rivers. As a rule, the maximum flood levels in the Tambov region rivers are reached in the late March - early April. However, this parameter is very variable. Moreover, the maximum flood water level varies from year to year. In this paper, we study the effects of various climatic parameters on the spring flood peak formation. We consider the Tsna River (the Oka basin) near Tambov as the model object of our study. Using methods of multiple correlation analysis, we determine the most significant climatic factors which affect the maximum flood level. In the research, 16 climatic and hydrological parameters from 1970 to 2018 are analyzed. We assess the contribution of the various factors to flood wave formation by using multiple regression analysis. Using the analysis, we have identified the most significant flooding factors.