Realization, Postponement or Abandonment of Childbearing Intentions in Four European Countries

Abstract

In the European context of low and late fertility, are couples postponing their fertility plans, or do they rapidly realize their intentions when they wish to have a child? Arnaud Régnier-Loilier and Daniele Vignoli recently analysed fertility intentions in France and Italy (Population, 2-2011) with data from the Generations and Gender Surveys (GGS). Using the first two waves of these same GGS surveys, along with two other longitudinal surveys, Balázs KAPITÁNY and Zsolt SPÉDER compare four different European countries. They focus their analysis on persons who reported wanting to have a child, to see whether their intentions were realized, postponed or abandoned over the following three years. Applying identical models to comparable data in countries with contrasting economic and demographic situations (Netherlands, Switzerland, Hungary and Bulgaria), they confirm the importance of national context: beyond the massive effects of age and partnership status, the determinants vary across countries and no single theory or hypothesis can be applied to all four.