The Ensemble Framework for Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5) v1.2: Description and case study

Abstract

The Ensemble Framework For Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5) was developed specifically for improving hydrologic predictions to aid in the issuance of flash flood warnings by the US National Weather Service. EF5 features multiple water balance models and two routing schemes which can be used to generate ensemble forecasts of streamflow, streamflow normalized by upstream basin area (i.e., unit streamflow), and soil saturation. EF5 is designed to utilize high-resolution precipitation forcing datasets now available in real time. A study on flash-flood-scale basins was conducted over the conterminous United States using gauged basins with catchment areas less than 1000 km2. The results of the study show that the three uncalibrated water balance models linked to kinematic wave routing are skillful in simulating streamflow.