To tip or not to tip: The Window of Tipping Point Analysis for social-ecological systems

Abstract

We introduce six steps to define a “Window of Tipping Point Analysis” which serves as a framework to increase the understanding of processes and tipping points in social-ecological systems. We apply the Window of Tipping Point Analysis to a mathematical model and two case studies (i.e., Baltic Sea and the Humboldt Current Upwelling system), focusing on three aspects. In “to tip or be tipped” we look at agency in preventing (or driving) tipping. In “to be tipped or not to be tipped” we discuss intertemporal developments and chosen time periods for delineating regime shifts. In “to tip or not to tip” we discuss the desirability of states and their relation to the elements included. We argue that agency in tipping-point management, the occurrence of tipping points, and desirable states depend on the window chosen for the analysis.