High-resolution climate simulations with COSMO-CLM over Italy: Performance evaluation and climate projections for the 21st century

Abstract

This study presents the results of dynamically downscaled climate simulations over Italy produced with the COSMO-CLM model. Three simulations forced by ERA-Interim Reanalysis were conducted respectively at a spatial resolution of 0.22°, 0.125° and 0.0715° over the period 1979-2011. The results were analysed in terms of 2-m temperature and precipitation with the aim of assessing the model's ability to reproduce these important features of the Italian climate. The results were validated by comparing model output with different independent observational datasets. Values of temperature and precipitation show a general good agreement with observations, with a fair reduction of errors in all seasons as the resolution is increased. Two simulations at a spatial resolution of 0.0715°, driven by the global model CMCC-CM, were performed over the period 1971-2100, employing the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Climate projections show a significant warming expected in Italy at the end of the 21st century, along with a general reduction in precipitation, particularly evident in spring and summer.