Development of a nomogram prediction model for gait speed trajectories in persons with knee osteoarthritis

Abstract

To examine heterogeneous trajectories of 8-year gait speed among patients with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (KOA) and to develop a nomogram prediction model. We analyzed data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) assessed at baseline and follow-up over 8 years (n = 1289). Gait speed was measured by the 20-m walk test. The gait speed trajectories among patients with KOA were explored by latent class growth analysis. A nomogram prediction model was created based on multivariable logistic regression. Three gait speed trajectories were identified: the fast gait speed group (30.4%), moderate gait speed group (50.5%) and slow gait speed group (19.1%). Age ≥ 60 years, female, non-white, nonmarried, annual income < $50,000, obesity, depressive symptoms, comorbidity and WOMAC pain score ≥ 5 were risk factors for the slow gait trajectory. The area under the ROC curve of the prediction model was 0.775 (95% CI 0.742–0.808). In the external validation cohort, the AUC was 0.773 (95% CI 0.697–0.848). Heterogeneous trajectories existed in the gait speed of patients with KOA and could be predicted by multiple factors. Risk factors should be earlier identified, and targeted intervention should be carried out to improve physical function of KOA patients.