Marginal abatement cost curves for carbon-neutral transition in Thailand’s agri-food processing industry: quantitative pathways toward bio-circular-green economy alignment

Abstract

Background: Thailand’s agri-food processing sector is a significant source of industrial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, yet the cost-effectiveness of sector-level decarbonisation options remains unquantified in the peer-reviewed literature. This evidence gap hinders evidence-based policy design under Thailand’s Bio-Circular-Green (BCG) Economy strategy and its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target of 33.3% GHG reduction by 2030. Methods: This study constructs sector-specific Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves for five major Thai agri-food processing sub-sectors (sugarcane processing, cassava starch manufacturing, rice milling, canned fruit, and frozen seafood processing) using exclusively secondary quantitative data from national energy audit reports, GHG inventories, and IPCC emission factors. Eight abatement measures are evaluated per sub-sector. Parameter uncertainty is bounded through Monte Carlo simulation. A composite BCG Alignment Index (BCG-AI) is introduced to score each sub-sector across the Bio, Circular, and Green dimensions of the BCG framework. Results: Total Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions from the five sub-sectors are estimated at 8,737 ktCO₂e per year. MAC values range from −14.2 USD per tonne CO₂ equivalent for biomass cogeneration in sugarcane processing to +42.5 USD per tonne CO₂ equivalent for cold-chain electrification in frozen seafood. The Aligned Transition scenario yields an estimated abatement of 3,399 ktCO₂e (90% uncertainty interval: 2,780–3,910 ktCO₂e), exceeding an analytical proxy sector-level NDC target of approximately 2,910 ktCO₂e. No sub-sector achieves BCG Advanced status (BCG-AI > 70). Conclusion: This study presents one of the first sector-wide MAC curve analyses for Thailand’s agri-food processing industry published in the international peer-reviewed literature. NDC-consistent abatement is technically achievable at negative or near-zero net cost through biogas recovery and biomass cogeneration, and the findings deliver an actionable policy matrix for BCG industrial strategy and a baseline emissions-intensity dataset that Thai food exporters can use for voluntary carbon footprint disclosure as international carbon trade governance evolves.