An Open-Access Remote Sensing and AHP–GIS Framework for Flood Susceptibility Assessment of Cultural Heritage

Abstract

Floods represent one of the most frequent and damaging natural hazards in Mediterranean mountain regions, where intense rainfall and complex topography amplify runoff and inundation risk. This study aims to delineate flood-susceptible zones in the Monti Lucretili area of central Italy, an environmentally sensitive and culturally significant landscape that hosts archeological remains and UNESCO listed dry-stone heritage using an integrated Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS) approach. Fifteen (15) conditioning factors, including elevation, slope, rainfall, soil, lithology, land use/land cover, drainage density, and proximity to rivers and roads, were derived from open-access satellite remote sensing and spatial datasets. The AHP model produced a flood susceptibility index ranging from 1.806 to 4.465, reclassified into five categories from very low to very high zones. The resulting map indicates that low- and moderate-susceptibility zones dominate the study area, while high and very high classes are primarily concentrated along valleys and drainage corridors. Model validation indicates strong regional-scale predictive performance, with 85.36% of modeled flood-prone areas located within high- to very-high-susceptibility zones and an AUC value of 0.82. Overall, the study highlights the potential of open-access AHP–GIS modeling as a practical screening tool for flood susceptibility assessment and heritage-aware spatial planning in Mediterranean environments.