Diversity of ENSO-Related Surface Temperature Response in Future Projection in CMIP6 Climate Models: Climate Change Scenario Versus ENSO Intensity

Abstract

Few studies explore how the diversity of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related atmospheric response is influenced by anthropogenic forcing and ENSO intensity. We examine the diversity of surface temperature (Ts) anomalies related to weak, moderate and strong ENSO events in North America (NA) for present and future climates forced under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios in CMIP6 climate models. When ENSO intensity is weaker, the NA Ts anomalies are more sensitive/variable to different SSP scenarios than moderate and strong ENSO. The NA Ts anomalies are more sensitive to the impacts of ENSO intensity under a sustainable climate change scenario, compared to the high SSP scenario. We discuss why the diversity of ENSO-related Ts response projections differs in the combination of ENSO intensity and climate change scenarios.