Special ones? The effect of head coaches on football team performance

Abstract

Using data from professional football leagues in four countries, we assess the effects on team performances following head coach turnover, distinguishing between voluntary and involuntary exits. We use entropy balancing to deal with the endogeneity of coach departures, by reweighting pre-departure covariates to obtain a comparable control group. Results reveal little, if any, positive effect from either type of turnover, though some longer-term benefits are possible if teams experience no subsequent turnover. We discuss how these findings fit with previous literature and theory, and discuss the wider practical implications.