Changing Trends in the Global Burden of Cataract Over the Past 30 Years: Retrospective Data Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Abstract

Background: Cataracts now account for the largest proportion of the global burden of blindness and vision loss. Understanding the changing trends in the global burden of cataracts over the past 30 years and the next 15 years is of clear significance for the prevention and control of cataracts in key populations. As far as we know, research on the future burden of cataracts is lacking. Objective: This study aims to assess the global burden of cataracts over the past 30 years by using age-period-cohort modeling and to estimate trends in the next 15 years. Methods: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, the United Nations Development Programme, and the WHO (World Health Organization) Global Health Observatory data repository. The assessment of trends and disparities in the number and rate of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for cataracts from 1990 to 2019 was conducted. The association between the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) and the socio-demographic index (SDI), human development index (HDI), national levels of particulate matter <2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5), and ambient ultraviolet radiation (UVR) was determined using linear regression analysis. Additionally, we used the Nordpred (Harald Fekjær and Bjørn Møller) age-period-cohort model to predict the cataract burden from 2020 to 2034. Results: Globally, the number of DALYs due to cataract increased from 3,492,604 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2,481,846-4,719,629) in 1990 to 6,676,281 (95% UI 4,761,210-9,006,193) in 2019. The ASDRs due to cataract decreased from 93.17 (95% UI 66.14-125.32) in 1990 to 82.94 (95% UI 59.06-111.75) in 2019, with an average annual percentage change of –0.37 (95% CI –0.44 to –0.3; P