MARKET ANALYSIS OF THE RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OF UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF CHANGES IN FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC PROCESSES

Abstract

Diversification of the economic base through the development of the bioeconomy will not only contribute to the sustainability of Ukraine's economy but also create new opportunities for its post-war recovery. The greatest potential in Ukraine's bioeconomy lies in bioenergy, namely renewable energy sources. In the context of Russia's military aggression, the development of renewable energy sources is one of the key factors in ensuring Ukraine's energy independence and energy security. Therefore, a market analysis of the Ukrainian renewable energy market in the context of changes in financial and economic processes is an urgent scientific problem. The paper identifies medium-term, endogenous, production, deterministic, regulated, direct, and quantitative market-forming factors of the renewable energy market in Ukraine. The classic form of market conditions is the ratio of supply and demand and price dynamics. However, the use of energy prices as market factors in the renewable energy market in Ukraine during a full-scale invasion is not adequate. The established prices are not market-based and are controlled by the state. That is why the market analysis proposed in this paper includes the following stages: analysis of the dynamics of electricity production in Ukraine, billion kWh, which includes the definition of thirteen statistical indicators and their visualization; determination of the share of alternative energy sources in the structure of electricity production for 2017-2024 and construction of a trend line; analysis of seasonality in the renewable energy market; construction of a linear multivariate regression model; analysis of the correlation between electricity production in Ukraine, billion kWh. For the purpose of the market analysis, the statistical data for 2023-2024 are forecasted using the moving average method, due to the lack of statistical data during the war.