Measurement of rural poverty alleviation sustainability and return-to-poverty risk identification in qinling-bashan mountains: A case study of chengkou county, chongqing municipality

Abstract

Achieving sustainable poverty alleviation and establishing a prevention and control mechanism for return-to-poverty in extreme poverty rural areas is a realistic requirement in the post-2020 era. It is also a key link between precision poverty alleviation and rural revitalization. Taking Chengkou County of Chongqing Municipality—an area of strong ecological fragility and concentrated continuous poverty—as the research area, and based on the poverty alleviation sustainability measurement model, obstacle degree model, and minimum variance model, this study explored the spatial differentiation of multidimensional poverty alleviation sustainability and the return-to-poverty risk models for 60 villages and 1950 farming households in the area. The study found that: 1) The sample villages' poverty alleviation sustainability distribution generally showed a "gourd-like" structure where the front end is narrow and the middle part protrudes. The multidimensional poverty alleviation sustainability in the area is generally low and of different degrees. 2) The return-to-poverty risk in Chengkou County can be divided into four models and 11 types, dominated by diversified integration of various resistance factors. Human capital, development opportunities, and other factors related to sustainable income growth, dynamic anti-risk capability, and endogenous drives of farmers have gradually become the focus of poverty reduction and control of return-to-poverty at this stage. 3) Local governments should give equal priority to alleviating poverty, improving the sustainability of poverty alleviation, and preventing return-to-poverty. At the same time, improve people's ability to resist risks and develop a network for preventing return-to-poverty of vulnerable groups with specific policy in each village.