Investigation of the probability of concurrent drought events between the water source and destination regions of China's water diversion project

Abstract

In this study, we investigate the concurrent drought probability between the water source and destination regions of the central route of China's South to North Water Diversion Project. We find that both regions have been drying from 1960 to 2013. The estimated return period of concurrent drought events in both regions is 11 years. However, since 1997, these regions have experienced 5 years of simultaneous drought. The projection results of global climate models show that the probability of concurrent drought events is highly likely to increase during 2020 to 2050. The increasing concurrent drought events will challenge the success of the water diversion project, which is a strategic attempt to resolve the water crisis of North China Plain. The data suggest great urgency in preparing adaptive measures to ensure the long-term sustainable operation of the water diversion project. Key Points Concurrent drought in the water source and destination can threaten a water diversion project The water source and destination have experienced 5 years of concurrent drought since 1997 The success of the project faces challenge if the frequently concurrent drought events continue