Jobs Exposure to Generative AI: Ongoing Study by NASK-PIB and ILO

Abstract

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI), including generative AI (GenAI), raises important questions about its impact on the labour market and employment structure. This study examines the extent to which various occupations are exposed to GenAI by developing an index to identify potential shifts in the nature of work. The analysis focuses on specific occupational tasks that may be affected to varying degrees by the proliferation of AI tools. The study categorises occupations into four groups: susceptible to automation (Automation potential), subject to augmentation by GenAI (Augmentation potential), characterised by significant uncertainty (Big unknown), and not susceptible to technological change (Not affected). The research was conducted in three stages: assessing occupational exposure, verifying findings with expert analysis, and extrapolating results to 30,000 tasks across 2,500 occupations, with the support of ChatGPT-4. The findings enable estimates of the occupational groups most “at risk” from GenAI and contribute to macroeconomic forecasts for the Polish labour market.