Influence of EU-Russian sanctions and oil price on Danish trade

Abstract

Purpose – The article compares the effect of European Union (EU)-Russian sanctions imposed in 2014 with the influence of fluctuating oil prices on Danish trade. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper annual import and export trade data between Denmark and 152 countries from the period 2002–18 were computed in STATA/SE 16.1 using the Gravity model to evaluate the effect of economic sanctions and the price of oil. Findings – Results showed that the impact from the fall of oil price exceeded the negative effect from sanctions on Danish export. Additionally, the analyses suggest that the fall in oil price had a negative effect on Danish import. Even so, Danish import significantly increased due to growth in supplies of energy resources from Russia. Originality/value – This study explains the overlapping effects of EU-Russian sanctions and fluctuating oil prices on Danish trade. This methodology can be expanded to encompass multiple countries using the two-sided Gravity model.