Forecast of the Long-Term Trajectory of the Potential GDP of Kazakhstan in the Context of the Global Energy Transition

Abstract

Abstract—: The article presents a forecast of the potential GDP of Kazakhstan performed using a structural method based on a production function that establishes relationships between the factors of production, total factor productivity, and output. Forecast estimations of trends of the key factors of production and the total factor productivity that form the long-term trend of the potential GDP of the country in the context of the global energy transition are presented. The baseline scenario of a long-term forecast of the potential GDP of Kazakhstan for the period until 2050 as adjusted for the objective of decarbonization of the economy is developed. Approaches to economic policy that could “nudge” the potential GDP up are proposed.