Assessing the impact of excise duties on a state's revenues: the case of Greece

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of excise duties on tobacco products on state's revenues. Increasing excise duties on tobacco may act as a means to reduce the consumption of this product and thus to have a positive effect on citizens' health and prosperity. Our research showed that an increase in consumer income will result in a certain increase in cigarette consumption and an analogous decrease in fine-cut tobacco consumption, while a similar increase in cigarette price results in a small decrease in cigarette consumption and a very large increase in fine-cut tobacco consumption. Additionally, stepping up an anti-smoking campaign results in a decrease in cigarette consumption. Specifically for Greece we found that during 2019 and 2020 there will be a decrease in the state's revenues from excise duties on tobacco products of €150-€200 million each year.