Dutch growth management in a changing market

Abstract

The current growth management strategy of the Dutch national government is hugely ambitious. By spelling out the policy theory on which it is (implicitly) based, we can see also that it is very complex. It is based upon a structure of assumptions, most of which can be justified from past experience: but if underlying conditions change, then the assumptions become questionable. Moreover, the national government changed many of its rules and procedures at the same time, which makes past experience an unreliable guide. Then the whole strategy becomes vulnerable. This is what we see at the moment. The irony is that some of the changes have been introduced by central government itself-e.g. more housing for the market sector, greater constraints on development outside the approved locations-without it realising fully what the consequences will be for the growth management strategy. Methodologically, we can conclude that reconstructing the 'policy theory' underlying a policy is an effective way of evaluating that policy before it has started to achieve effects 'on the ground'. This method lays bare the assumptions made, implicitly or explicitly, by the policy makers. Then the validity of those assumptions can be studied.