Subsidence Management and Prediction System: A Case Study in Potash Mining

Abstract

Subsidence is an important environmental and safety issue in the mining sector, yet there remain voids in knowledge in terms of management and prediction. This study aims to improve knowledge on the impact of mining operations on the surface, reducing their effect on the environment, increasing the safety of mining operations, monitoring stress behavior and predicting rock mass. Therefore, an analysis was carried out to process and analyze the measured subsidence data and, subsequently, create a numerical model to predict the surface subsidence of a case study mine. The model was developed based on a finite element method (FEM). It was achieved by considering the geological characteristics of the area, the design features of the mine, the surface subsidence measured over twelve years and the time-dependent behavior of the geological layers. The correlation obtained between the measured subsidence and the modelling results was very satisfactory, with a 90% confidence level, over the years analyzed. Hence, the efficiency of the system was confirmed, enabling the evaluation and the prediction of potential surface effects, and therefore improving the safety and environmental levels of the mining area.