A Study on the Winning and Losing Factors of Para Ice Hockey Using Data Mining-Based Decision Tree Analysis

Abstract

This study aims to explore the winning and losing factors of Para Ice Hockey (PIH) games using a data mining-based decision tree analysis targeting the PIH games in international competitions organized by World Para Ice Hockey (WPIH). To achieve the study purpose and data collection, 66 games among the nations participating in the four international competitions for the last two years organized by WPIH, were selected as study subjects. The 3432 game records provided by WPIH were collected as study variables. The results of this study are as follows: First, the winning teams recorded 5.79 goals, 24.05 total shots on goal (SOG), 57.79% face-off winning percentage, 7.62 total saves (SVS), 0.24 total power play goals (PPGs), and 0.39 penalty-killing goals (PKGs) per game were recorded. The losing teams recorded 0.89 goals, 8.52 SOG, 42.21% face-off winning percentage, 18.26 SVS, 0.82 PPG, and 0.05 PKG and showed significant differences. When looking at game records by period, significant differences were revealed in the goals, SOG, and PPG except in the third period, and total shorthanded goals (SHGs) and SVS except in the second period. The winning teams showed the highest goals and SOG in the first, second, and third periods, while the losing teams showed the reverse order. Second, (1) according to the exploration result of winning and losing factors, excluding total goal-related variables, the probability of winning was 82.8% if the goal was 1 or more in the first period. The critical winning and losing factors were revealed as a goal in the first period and SOG in the second period in that order. (2) According to the exploration result of the winning and losing factors, excluding each period’s goal-related variables, the probability of winning was 81.4% if the SOG was 5 or more in the first period. As the essential winning and losing factors, SOG in the first period, SOG in the second period, and time on power play (TPP) in the third period were revealed. (3) The exploration result of winning and losing factors, excluding goals and shots-related variables, the probability of winning was 70.9% if the total face-off winning percentage was 46.23% or more. As the essential winning and losing factors, the total face-off winning percentage and SVS in the second period are shown in order.