Assessing the Effects of COVID-19-Related Stay-at-Home Orders on Homicide Rates in Selected U.S. Cities

Abstract

Most U.S. states issued stay-at-home orders (SAHOs) to limit the spread of COVID-19 in 2020. These orders required people to remain in their residences except when undertaking essential activities. While SAHOs are a powerful public health tool against infectious diseases, they can have significant social and economic consequences. Grounded in general strain and routine activities theories and using interrupted time series analyses, this study assesses the effects of SAHOs on homicide rates in 10 U.S. cities. Substantive results suggest SAHOs were associated with changes in homicide rates in theoretically identifiable ways.