HadGEM2-ES/RegCM4.3.4 Küresel/Bölgesel Model Verilerine Göre Kaz Dağı ve Yakın Çevresinin Yağışlarında Olası Değişiklikler (2000-2099)

Abstract

Climate Change and the efforts of solution seeking on it are developing. Climate models are the best tools in these efforts to foresee how the climate system will react to the climatic forces. Climate models are to be downscaled using Dynamic Downscaling methods, These are efforts of getting both higher resolution and real-like output results. Also in Turkey, Climate projections are obtained via Global Climate Model Outputs which are in the scope of IPCC-AR5 and downscaled to regional and local with province scale. However, No projectional research was found at the scale of Mount Ida and vicinity. Thus, it is investigated in this paper that how Mount Ida, which has importance with different climate, natural and social environment both side of, and with special topography is influenced by Climate Change. This study forms a part of a PhD thesis which aimed at determination of possible changes of both climate and tree formation areas between 2000-2099 years. In this study, it is investigated the changes in annual mean precipitation in Mount Ida and its vicinity until the end of this century in periods of 2016-2040; 2041-2070 and 2071-2099 based on HadGEM2-ES/RegCM4.3.4 global/regional models’ outputs both RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Precipitation values of 10mx10m grid centre of surfaces of the mountainous area were calculated, analyzed and produced maps in GIS. According to findings, annual mean precipitation values in the area increase dramatically until the end of this century.