Índice de risco de mortalidade por endocardite infecciosa: Um modelo logístico multivariado

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed at identifying predictive variables for in-hospital mortality, calculating the probability of death and creating a risk index for death by infective endocarditis by comparing two methods using a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted of 186 consecutive cases of confirmed infective endocarditis divided into two groups: discharged (137) and in-hospital death (49). Based on the odds ratios obtained by multivariate analysis, the probability of death was calculated and a mortality risk index created. Results: Factors predictive of higher mortality (multivariate analysis) and the risk index, with their respective weights were: age ≥ 40 years (OR = 4.16; 95%CI [1.63-10.80] - 4 points), class IV heart failure or cardiovascular shock (OR = 4.93; 95%CI [1.86-13.05] - 5 points), uncontrolled sepsis (OR = 5.97; 95%CI [1.95-18.35] - 6 points), conduction disorder (OR = 5.07; 95%CI [1.67-15.35] - 5 points), arrhythmia (OR = 8.17; 95%CI [2.60-25.71] - 8 points), valve with extensive damage or abscess or prosthesis (OR = 4.77; 95%CI [1.44-15.76] - 5 points) and large and mobile vegetation (OR = 4.36; 95%CI [1.55-12.90] - 4 points). Patients with scores between 0 and 10 had a mortality of 5.26% and scores over 20 of 78.9%. Conclusions: The higher the score, the higher the mortality rate. The mortality risk index may be used to estimate mortality in Infective Endocarditis.