Vulnerability analysis of cruise shipping in ASEAN countries facing COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected the cruise shipping industry, disrupting ports and shipping. However, current research predominantly focuses on the impact on individual ports or vessels, leaving a gap in understanding how these disruptions propagate across cruise shipping networks. To address this gap, a novel vulnerability assessment methodology that offers a comprehensive perspective on the broader impact of COVID-19 on cruise shipping networks is developed. It first uses a new weight social network analysis approach to quantify the vulnerability of each cruise port in a shipping network and then combines the curie port local pandemic risk to generate a new index to reveal the COVID-19 impact on the whole cruise shipping network systematically. The new methodology is applied to analyse the ASEAN cruise shipping network. This real-world COVID-19 pandemic case study yields valuable insights that bridge theoretical and practical domains. Integrating local port-level vulnerabilities with shipping network-level vulnerabilities creates a unique index. This index quantifies the individual and collective influence of COVID-19 risks at different cruise ports on the entire regional cruise shipping network. The results directly impact cruise lines seeking to enhance their operations' resilience in the face of COVID-19 challenges. The vulnerability index explains how risk exposure at various ports shapes the network's dynamics. This insight empowers cruise lines to optimise ship deployment schedules, lowering the network's overall COVID-19 pandemic risk. The research method and outcomes offer a pioneering perspective on the vulnerability of cruise shipping networks to COVID-19 disruptions, and other possible disruptions (e.g., climate change) in a broad sense. By elucidating interconnected vulnerabilities, cruise lines are equipped with actionable insights to navigate the complexities of global challenges.