Predicting student self-efficacy in Muslim societies using machine learning algorithms

Abstract

Introduction: Self-efficacy is a critical determinant of students' academic success and overall life outcomes. Despite its recognized importance, research on predictors of self-efficacy using machine learning models remains limited, particularly within Muslim societies. This study addresses this gap by leveraging advanced machine learning techniques to analyze key factors influencing students' self-efficacy. Methods: An empirical dataset collected was used to examine self-efficacy among secondary school students in Muslim societies. Four machine learning algorithms-Decision Tree, Random Forest, XGBoost, and Neural Network-were employed to predict self-efficacy using two demographic variables and 10 socio-emotional, cognitive, and regulatory factors. The predictors included culturally relevant variables such as religious/spiritual beliefs and collectivist-individualist orientation. Model performance was assessed using root mean square error (RMSE) and r-squared (R2) metrics to ensure reliability and validity. Results: The results showed that Random Forest outperformed the other models in accuracy, as measured by R2 and RMSE metrics. Among the predictors, self-regulation, problem-solving, and a sense of belonging emerged as the most significant factors, contributing to more than half of the model's predictive power. Other variables such as gratitude, forgiveness, empathy, and meaning-making displayed moderate predictive value, while gender, emotion regulation, and collectivist-individualist orientation had minimal impact. Notably, religious/spiritual beliefs and regional factors showed negligible influence on self-efficacy predictions. Discussion: This study enhances the understanding of factors influencing self-efficacy among students in Muslim societies and offers a data-driven foundation for developing targeted educational interventions. The findings highlight the utility of machine learning in education research, demonstrating its ability to uncover insights for equitable and effective decision-making. By emphasizing the importance of regulatory and socio-emotional factors, this research provides actionable insights to elevate student performance and well-being in diverse cultural contexts.