Research on the Default Risk and Credit Strategy of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise

Abstract

With the rapid development of China's multilevel capital markets, small and medium-sized enterprises gradually occupy an important part of the market economy. Due to the characteristics of small scale, simple technology, low financing and capital utilization efficiency of SMEs, commercial banks will have concerns when facing loans, therefore a more effective credit evaluation criteria should be designed. This article studies the default risk and credit strategy of SMEs from the perspective of banks. For the default risk assessment system, the default risk prediction model is constructed based on the Logistic regression model, and the corporate reputation rating model is constructed based on the CART decision tree. For bank credit strategy decisions, risk reduction and profit gain should be balanced reasonably. The establishment of the dual-objective optimization model can better deal with the trade-off between risk and profit, thus determine the bank's loan strategy. The Pareto efficiency of the model is obtained by NSGA-II optimization technology.