Bolivia: Una nueva mirada al rol de los recursos naturales en el crecimiento económico

Abstract

We present a quantitative analysis of the relationships between economic growth in Bolivia and the price dynamics in 1970–2013 of the most important export natural resources, namely tin, zinc, silver, gold and gas. On the basis of historical analysis, we identify the time periods in which each of these natural resources was closely related to the country’s economic performance. We find that the price trends of tin in 1970–1986 and gas in 2000–2013 allow for reproduction of the economic growth trend, with mean squared errors of 1.25 and 0.5, respectively. Variations in the price trends of these resources account for 89 percent of variability in the economic growth trend. These strong relationships go on to show the power of these price trends as predictors of economic growth. We also find that in 1987–1999, price trends of zinc, silver, and gold are not precise predictors of economic growth.