From policy intent to climate-smart implementation: developing the Saudi climate-smart social housing governance model (S-CSHGM)

Abstract

Introduction: Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 positions social and affordable housing as a strategic lever for climate-smart urban development. However, despite advanced regulatory instruments such as the Mostadam Green Building Rating System and Saudi Building Code (SBC 601), a persistent implementation gap raises critical questions about how governance arrangements shape actual sustainability outcomes in energy use, comfort, and water efficiency. Methods: Guided by institutional theory and the accountability trap concept, this study develops a six-factor analytical model of the enabling environment for sustainable, AI-ready social housing. A qualitative, multi-method approach triangulates: (i) systematic analysis of 42 national policy documents (2016–2025); (ii) a two-round Delphi survey with 23 experts; and (iii) structured benchmarking against Singapore’s Green Mark, Abu Dhabi’s Estidama, and Qatar’s Global Sustainability Assessment System. Results: The analysis reveals pronounced institutional voids and accountability traps. While sustainability is strongly embedded in formal regulations, responsibilities for post-occupancy and digital performance are diffuse; procurement and finance remain weakly linked to lifecycle outcomes; and fragmented data systems limit the use of smart-building and AI-enabled tools. Delphi findings prioritize performance-linked procurement, unified housing-performance data platforms, mandatory post-occupancy evaluation, and green finance instruments—practices aligned with international benchmarks. Discussion: The study proposes the Saudi Climate-Smart Social Housing Governance Model (S-CSHGM), a four-pillar, AI-ready framework designed to realign roles, incentives, digital infrastructures, and feedback loops. This advances theory by operationalizing institutional and accountability concepts into a measurable governance model and provides a concrete roadmap to link Vision 2030 housing ambitions with verifiable, data-driven sustainability performance in Saudi Arabia’s built environment.