Proyección de médicos especialistas para el Sector Salud de México a 2030. Un método para estimar requerimientos y planificar su formación

Abstract

Objective: Carry out the projection of medical specialists in the Health Sector Mexico by 2030. Method: A predictive approach was developed to project the number of medical specialists by 2030, according to a trend, a desired goal and two conventional scenarios of increased demand for health services. The methodology was developed based on the General Framework to Assess the Future Supply and Demand of Health Personnel, published in 2013 by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and a mathematical model and a software were designed to make projections about the number of specialists. Results: According to the trend, between 2013 and 2030, the number of specialists will be increased by 90,554 to 124,558 and the rate will be change of 77/100.000 population to 91/100,000 population. If is necessary to achieve a goal of 120/100,000, will be necessary to train 40,420 additional specialists to the trend number and if the demand for services increases 15% or 30%, will require further training specialists 65,166 and 89,913, respectively. Conclusions: Even with the trend increase, in the 2030 Mexico will not achieve the desired goal of 126/100,000 population, that the OECD countries had in 2011. The results of the projections made, can help to planning the training of specialists in the medium term.