Global climate system response to SOFIA Antarctic meltwater in HadCM3-M2.1

Abstract

As the climate continues to warm, the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) and its surrounding floating ice shelves are becoming increasingly susceptible to rapid collapse. Despite the potential impact this poses to the global climate system, the effects of ice-climate feedbacks are not directly considered by most existing coupled climate models, including those in the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). As such, there remains much uncertainty over the impact of this additional meltwater on current global climate change projections. Here, we use the coupled atmospheric-ocean general circulation model HadCM3-M2.1 to study the effect of a continuous meltwater discharge from the AIS on the global climate system. This involves carrying out a series of freshwater hosing experiments based on the newly proposed Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) Initiative. Due to the relative computational efficiency of the HadCM3-M2.1 model, we are able to explore longer timescales than is usual. We find that ∼ 1000 years of continuous meltwater drives global atmospheric cooling, sea ice expansion in both hemispheres and a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The resulting freshening of the global ocean results in the weakening of both the AMOC and AABW. This triggers pervasive ocean warming at depths greater than 5000 m. An additional sensitivity study is also conducted in which the sensitivity of the climate model response to a change in the horizontal distribution of AIS meltwater is tested. As a result, we find that the manner in which the AIS loses mass, whether that be predominately through iceberg mass loss or basal melt, is unlikely to affect the global climate response to AIS meltwater.