Quinoa expansion in Peru and its implications for land use management

Abstract

Quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd.) has gained prominence worldwide over recent years and suddenly Peru has emerged as a major player in the global quinoa market. This study aims to analyze the expansion of quinoa farming in Peru in the period 1995-2014 and to discuss the changes in land-use the country has experienced as a result of the boom in the global demand for quinoa. Two statistical approaches, principal component analysis (PCA) and exponential smoothing, were applied in the data analysis to explore the evolution of the quinoa boom in Peru by periods and to forecast what the acreage expansion rate would have been if the boom had not occurred. The results show that the quinoa boom was responsible for an increase of 43% in the number of hectares planted with quinoa in 2014, in relation to the number predicted if there had been no boom. This provoked an acceleration of production in traditional quinoa farming areas and the extension of this activity to new regions. The consequences are already apparent in the land-use changes seen in Peru, namely the: (i) displacement; (ii) rebound; and (iii) cascade effects.