Realized semibetas in the Australian stock market

Abstract

This study examines the explanatory power of the CAPM and downside risk asset pricing models (the downside beta and the realized semibeta models) for the next-month firm-level cross-sectional stock return variation in the Australian stock market. We show that the CAPM beta, downside beta, semibeta BetaNP, and semibeta BetaNN negatively predict future stock returns, which is inconsistent with the findings in the original study by Bollerslev, Patton, and Quaedvlieg (2022). The BetaNN measures the individual stock movement in the same direction as the downward stock market, while BetaNP measures individual stock downward with the upward stock market. These findings are robust, not subsumed by conventional cross-sectional asset pricing factors, and consistent with the existing Australian downside risk study.