Calcaneal BMD Obtained by Dual X-Ray and Laser Predicts Future Hip Fractures—A Prospective Study on 4 398 Swedish Women

Abstract

The predictive value of dual X-ray and laser (DXL) calcaneal BMD ( BMD DXL ) on hip fractures was prospectively studied in 4,398 females aged 55 to 99 years. The average follow-up period was 3 years and 11 months with a total of 17,270 person years. Fractures were identified from the national patient register. After inclusion, 130 females sustained a hip fracture. The age adjusted hazard ratio for T-score −2.5 was 2.64. Of all patients who sustained a hip fracture 78% had a T-score of −2.5 or below. The annual hip fracture rate was 0.26% at T-scores ≥−2, but 1.5% at T-scores ≤−2.5. The area under curve for the model including calcaneal BMD DXL , follow-up time, and age to prospectively predict hip fractures was 0.84. Conclusions . Calcaneal BMD DXL obtained by DXL Calscan predicts hip fractures and may therefore be suitable for diagnosing osteoporosis and for predicting fracture risk.