Explaining the urban–rural gradient in later fertility in Europe

Abstract

Demographic research shows that, in Europe, fertility takes place later and is lower in cities than in rural areas. One might expect fertility to be delayed in urban areas because of longer periods in education and enhanced career opportunities. We, therefore, examine how prevalent later fertility (35+ and 40+) is along the urban–rural axis, and whether differences can be explained by economic, cultural and compositional factors. We estimate multilevel random coefficient models, employing aggregated Eurostat data of 1328 Nomenclature des unités territoriales statistiques (NUTS) 3 and 270 NUTS 2 regions from 28 European countries. The urban–rural gradient in later fertility considerably diminishes once factors describing the economic environment, family and gender norms as well as population composition are accounted for. The higher prevalence of later fertility in cities is particularly associated with higher female education, greater wealth and a higher share of employment in high-technology sectors.