Pairwise approximation for SIR-type network epidemics with non-Markovian recovery

Abstract

We present the generalized mean-field and pairwise models for non-Markovian epidemics on networks with arbitrary recovery time distributions. First we consider a hyperbolic partial differential equation (PDE) system, where the population of infective nodes and links are structured by age since infection. We show that the PDE system can be reduced to a system of integro-differential equations, which is analysed analytically and numerically. We investigate the asymptotic behaviour of the generalized model and provide an implicit analytical expression involving the final epidemic size and pairwise reproduction number. As an illustration of the applicability of the general model, we recover known results for the exponentially distributed and fixed recovery time cases. For gamma- and uniformly distributed infectious periods, new pairwise models are derived. Theoretical findings are confirmed by comparing results from the new pairwise model and explicit stochastic network simulation. A major benefit of the generalized pairwise model lies in approximating the time evolution of the epidemic.