Recent Progress in Constraining Climate Sensitivity With Model Ensembles

Abstract

Recently available model ensembles have created an unprecedented opportunity for exploring and narrowing uncertainty in one of climate’s benchmark indices, equilibrium climate sensitivity. A range of novel approaches for constraining the raw sensitivity estimates from these ensembles with observations has also been proposed, applied, and explored in a diversity of contexts. Through subsequent analysis, an increased understanding of the relative merits and limitations of these methods has been gained and their refinement and optimal implementation continue to be actively studied and debated with the hopes of reducing uncertainty in one of climate science’s most persistent and elusive measures.