Electricity Load Saturation Analysis for Makassar City

Abstract

One of issues in the power systems is how to meet electricity load from year to year. Therefore, conducting future electricity load analysis as a basis to develop needed new power plants including expansion of electricity network is important. This paper aims to investigate saturation period of electricity consumption in Makassar, Indonesia using logistic curve approach. To analyze more detail phases of electricity consumption growth, logistic curve models for each service area in Makassar (north, south, east, and west region) were also composed and compared using data from year 2000 to 2015. Besides that, power load density was also investigated. Prediction results shown electricity energy consumption in Makassar will enter into saturation condition from year 2033 with consumption volume is 4,748 million kWh. Consumption growth percentage decreased by year which is around 0.06% in year 2050. Other main results shown saturation phase for the four observed regions occurred in the different years, and load density level is 5.226 MVA/km2 in year 2015. Presented information useful in developing more effective power grid in Makassar to keep optimal electricity service to consumers in the future and management.