Modelagem dinâmica espacial como ferramenta para simulação de cenários da paisagem na região portuária da Baixada Santista

Abstract

Considering the pressures of the port infrastructure sector over the land use and physical planning in the region of Baixada Santista, such as the demand for backport areas as well as for loads storage and transport, this study aims to develop a dynamic model of landscape changes in this region and investigate the relationship between land cover change and the transport infrastructure in such port area. With the aid of remote sensing products and cellular automata-based modeling, a simulated landscape map and a map of future landscape changes scenario were generated, considering port expansion projects for the year 2024. The growth in built-up areas derived from expansion projects takes place along the existing road system and in the vicinities of the estuarine channel. This confirms the trend of new facilities allocation as a function of port activities related to the circulation of goods and the infrastructure associated with the sea and land transport.