Impact of substitutions on elite soccer team performance based on player evaluation system

Abstract

This research aimed to explore the performance characteristics of substitutions and to evaluate the performance of substitutions based on the player evaluation system. Event data of 643 substitutions identified from the Chinese Super League teams in the 2019-2020 season were used. The team ratings, ball possession, and expected threat of four periods (5 minutes per period before and after the substitution) of each substitution were computed. Two-step cluster analysis was performed on the team ratings at different times, and the Scheirer–Ray–Hare test was used for the two-factor design based on the cluster and the substitutions across four periods. The cluster analysis revealed 5 clusters with a Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) value of 1,360.50. The interactions of team ratings between the periods and the clusters in different groups were detected (H = 531.96, p < .001, E2R = 0.47). The group comparisons suggested that the ratings of Cluster 3 showed a significant decline after substitutions, which was caused by the lower ball possession while showing greater aggressiveness in terms of expected threat. The study shows how player evaluation systems can be used to measure the effectiveness of substitutions in soccer games and provides insight for further analysis of decision-making situations.