FORECASTING INDONESIAN ISLAMIC BANK (BSI) SHARE PRICES USING THE FUZZY TIME SERIES CHENG METHOD

Abstract

Shares were one of the most popular financial market instruments. In Indonesia, stock market activity continued to increase so that stock investment was in great demand by the public, especially in the banking sector. Indonesia had a majority Muslim population. Based on this, Indonesia had good potential in the field of Islamic finance, especially Islamic banking. One of the Islamic banks that had achieved positive performance was Bank Syariah Indonesia (BSI). BSI's stock price every day from February 1, 2021, to January 11, 2023, tended to experience a downward trend and fluctuated, making it difficult for investors to see the prospects of a company in the future. For this reason, a forecasting technique was needed. A good forecasting method used for data with trend patterns both down and up was Cheng's Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) method. So, this study used Cheng's FTS method to predict BSI's share price in the future. The calculation of the accuracy of the prediction results in this study used Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results showed that the forecasted value of BSI's share price for the period January 12, 2023, to January 31, 2023, was constant at 1,353.267 million with a MAPE value of 3.09%.